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Q1 GDP beats forecasts, pushing rate cut expectations to July
Canada’s economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2025, outpacing expectations and matching the growth rate from Q4 2024. On a quarterly basis, real GDP rose 0.5%, while per capita GDP climbed 0.4%, building on a modest 0.1% gain in the previous quarter. The quarterly gain was largely driven by growth in total exports (+1.6%) and the buildup of business non-farm inventories, according to the agency. On an annual basis, business investment rose a solid 4.0%, despite ongoing tariff-related uncertainty facing Canadian firms. The upside was partially offset by a 2.8% drop in residential investment, driven by an 18.6% decline in ownership transfer costs—an indicator of resale market activity. It marked the steepest drop since Q1 2022. Final domestic demand—which captures total consumption and investment in fixed capital—was flat in Q1, posting no quarterly growth for the first time since late 2023. Advance data from StatCan suggests that real GDP rose another 0.1% in April, supported by gains in mining and finance, though partly offset by continued weakness in manufacturing. “The Canadian economy looks to have held up reasonably well in the opening months of the trade war, and even the most recent (estimate) for April suggests growth is weathering the trade storm,” wrote BMO’s Douglas Porter. Economists Warren Lovely and Noah Black with National Bank highlight an unsung driver of GDP strength: social security. While the federal government posted a $62-billion deficit over the past four quarters—equivalent to 2% of GDP—Canada’s public pension programs (CPP/QPP) “delivered a seasonally adjusted surplus (national accounts basis) for a 103rd straight quarter,” Lovely and Black wrote. They describe this surplus as a “fiscal lynchpin” for Canada, helping to offset gross debt and bolster financial reserves across government sectors. By their estimate, Canada now holds general government financial assets equivalent to 100% of GDP—thanks in no small part to consistent contributions from social security.
Federal government’s ‘affordable housing’ strategy doomed without strong income growth
<p></p><p>In a recent media scrum, the Carney government’s new federal housing minister Gregor Robertson—former mayor of Vancouver—was asked: “Should home prices go down?” His response: “No, I think that we need to deliver more supply, make sure the market is stable. We need to be delivering more affordable housing.” Robertson’s response raises a follow-up question: what does the Carney government mean when it promises “affordable housing”?Rising house prices are nothing new. The sticker price for the average Canadian home has increased in most years, barring periods such as the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis. And house prices aren’t expected to fall anytime soon; forecasts point to continued house price growth. But for homebuyers, the key issue isn’t that prices are increasing; it's whether they’re rising faster than incomes. By that measure, housing in Canada has become much less affordable in recent years. Consider Minister Robertson’s tenure as Vancouver mayor from 2008 to 2018. During that time, the price of a typical single- or semi-detached Vancouver home grew from $690,000 to $1,980,000—a 187 per cent increase. Meanwhile, the after-tax income of a typical Vancouver family rose by just 15 per cent. Today, the typical single- or semi-detached home in Vancouver costs $2,380,000. Vancouver’s housing market is somewhat unique, but strong price increases reflect a broader national trend: home prices have risen dramatically even as income growth has stagnated, largely because housing demand—driven by immigration-fuelled population growth—continues to far exceed new housing construction.!!</p>
Toronto's luxury home market records double-digit growth as wave of high-end buyers flex purchasing power amid more favourable outlook, says RE/MAX
<p></p><p>TORONTO, Jan. 8, 2025 /CNW/ -- The Greater Toronto Area's (GTA) luxury housing market shifted into high gear in the final quarter of 2024, with sales over $3 million climbing more than 40 per cent ahead of year-ago levels for the same period. Just over 360 freehold and condominium properties sold in Q4 2024, up from the 259 sales reported in Q4 2023, according to an analysis by RE/MAX Canada. "The impact of the first and second 50-basis-point rate cuts by the Bank of Canada radiated throughout the GTA in the fourth quarter, jumpstarting demand for high-end properties both within the city and suburbs," says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. "We've been expecting a surge in top-tier sales activity as the economic climate and corresponding pause in buying intentions prompted a build-up in pent-up demand. The fourth quarter did not disappoint."yes</p>
Luxury home sales drop to decade low
Luxury home buyers stepped back from the market in April, driving pending sales down 9.9% compared to the same month last year—the steepest decline since August 2023 and the lowest April level since 2014. The pullback occurred despite luxury home prices reaching near-record levels. The typical luxury home sold for $1,348,065 in April, marking a 6.5% increase from the previous year, though slightly below March’s record high. Non-luxury homes, by comparison, saw more modest price growth of 4.1% to a median of $374,598.
Luxury resilience: Why high-end real estate defies market trends
Luxury real estate in Metro Atlanta is doing something few other asset classes can claim right now: appreciating in value amid a broader market slowdown. Despite a 5.4 percent drop in total home sales across the overall market, properties in the $1 million+ range are rising in price and are selling at a faster rate than the same time period during 2024 — evidence that the affluent continue to view real estate as a strategic hedge and lifestyle upgrade rolled into one. The future of the luxury segment is showing surprising strength — outperforming broader market trends and capturing the attention of high-net-worth buyers. Properties priced above $2 million are seeing meaningful price appreciation, tighter negotiation margins and a measurable uptick in closed transactions.
Five commercial real estate trends to watch in 2025
Investors are becoming more bullish on retail real estate after years of decline culminating in a pandemic-era reckoning. Avison Young says that consumers have returned to stores and interested investors are finding it hard to snag prime retail assets. This is because construction of new retail buildings has been muted for over a decade, leading to a shortage of assets available for sale – and a run-up in prices. Grocery-anchored neighborhood shopping centers are the most in-demand assets to own and lease in Canada, the report says.
How to Invest in Real Estate: 5 Simple Strategies
When the stock market gets volatile, many investors turn to other options — including investing in real estate. Done right, real estate investing can be lucrative, help diversify your existing investment portfolio and eventually provide a stream of passive income. But understandably, many investors — especially beginners to real estate — don't want the burden of being a landlord or maintaining a property. Thankfully, many of the best real estate investments don’t require showing up at a tenant’s every beck and call. Here are some of the best ways to make money in real estate, ranging from low maintenance to high.
Katy Perry’s Weirdest Legal Issues Over the Years: Home Lawsuit, Music Video Investigation and More
Perry sued a group of the Sisters of the Immaculate Heart of Mary after the singer attempted to purchase their former convent in Los Angeles. According to the New York Times, the nuns purchased the property in 1972 from businessman Daniel Donohue. However, the Archdiocese of Los Angeles forced the remaining sisters to relocate against their will in 2011, per Billboard. Years later, Archbishop Jose Gomez agreed to sell the property to Perry without any input from the nuns. Perry, who grew up with a religious background, made an offer to pay for the estate with $14.5 million in cash, which Gomez accepted. After learning that Perry wanted to buy their former home, two of the nuns researched Perry. The women were allegedly appalled by her after watching some of her past interviews and performances. In 2015, Perry ended up meeting with the two nuns and reportedly sang the gospel song “Oh Happy Day” for them and showed them her “Jesus” tattoo on her wrist. Before Perry could complete the sale with Gomez, the nuns, who believed they owned the land, decided to sell the property to restaurateur and developer Dana Hollister. After handing over the deed, Perry and the archdiocese sued the nuns for selling the land and Hollister. A judge ruled in favor of Perry by invalidating Hollister’s purchase.
Katy Perry's WILD Real Estate Battles Inspired This Law
The Katy PERRY Act, also referred to as the PERRY Act, "addresses the risks of elder financial abuse, especially as it relates to property and real estate sales and transfers," according to a now-inactive website created by the act's supporters. "The Act establishes a 72-hour cool-down period during which either party involved in a contract for conveyance of a personal residence, in which one party is over the age of 75, can rescind the agreement without penalty." The name is an obvious reference to the singer, but PERRY also stands for Protecting Elder Realty for Retirement Years Act. While the PERRY Act never went through any legislative process—and was an effort supported by Perry's opponents in one of her high-profile real estate court battles (more on that below)—the proposed act had bipartisan support. In 2023, when the website was still active, the signing legislators included state representatives, assemblymen, and senators, with the majority from New Mexico and Texas. Others were from Arkansas, California, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Wyoming.
Real estate fraud up as London investors see $1.4M disappear from Hamilton Rd. development
A private investigator who deals in white collar crime said buyers need to take steps to protect themselves against real estate fraud, which he said has grown in Ontario in recent years. "Since COVID, it's like an epidemic in real estate fraud," said Brian King, a private investigator and owner of King International Advisory Group. King said his Richmond Hill-based business typically takes on four to six new cases of real estate fraud in a month. "In the past two years alone, we've been involved in cases where at least eight lawyers have been implicated in frauds and suspended by the Law Society," he said.
Docs Showing Letitia James' Residence Could Be Legal 'Problem' for AG
James, 66, has served as New York's attorney general since 2019. The Democrat is the first African American and first woman to be elected to that position in state history. She has gained notoriety in her various legal battles against President Donald Trump and his family, notably a New York judge's ruling in 2024 ordering then-former President Trump to pay a $454 million civil fraud judgment after James sued him for falsely inflating the value of his property. James, who was born in Brooklyn and is unmarried, filed the civil fraud lawsuit against Trump and the Trump Organization in October 2023. However, according to legal filings reviewed by Newsweek, about two months prior to that suit being filed, James had amended her own records as part of a real estate transaction.
Mortgage Forecast: Economic Uncertainty Could Keep Rates Close to 7% This Summer
There's a growing consensus among housing market experts that average mortgage rates will stay above 6.5% this year. Uncertainty over the impact of President Trump's economic policies continues to cause daily volatility in the mortgage market. On Tuesday, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.02%, according to Bankrate, compared to around 6.75% at the start of May. The increase followed a surge in Treasury yields in the bond market. Since the 30-year mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, we generally see higher rates for home loans when yields go up. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said the uptick in Treasury yields can be attributed to rising federal government debt levels and Moody's recent downgrading of the US credit rating. Bond yields had been on the rise even before last week, fueled by a combination of risk factors, including the inflationary impact of tariffs. "Growing uncertainty is going to make this a slower-than-typical spring housing market," said Sturtevant. Expensive mortgage rates and record-low affordability have plagued the housing market since 2022. Even those who can afford to buy in today's market are waiting. The psychological impact of economic instability holds prospective buyers back. "When people are anxious, they are less likely to make big decisions, like buying and selling a home," Sturtevant said.
Ontario rejects Toronto's affordable housing plan after REIT push back
<p></p><p>Ontario has scrapped Toronto’s proposed affordable housing requirements for nearly 70 redevelopment sites across the city, replacing mandatory quotas with non-binding language after pressure from major landowners, including several real estate investment trusts (REITs). The province’s decision came in late January, just ahead of Ontario’s 2025 election call, more than a year after Toronto city council submitted amendments to convert parcels of former employment land for residential use. The city’s original proposal included affordability mandates requiring a percentage of new units to be priced below market rates for at least 99 years. However, the Ford government’s final approval changed the requirement to a suggestion, stating that affordable housing was merely “encouraged. ”According to documents reviewed by the Toronto Star, at least three REITs lobbied against the affordability conditions, warning the rules could stifle development or render projects financially unviable. “During a housing crisis, this dangerous disincentive acts directly contrary to the provincial and municipal mandate to bring housing to market faster,” wrote lawyers for CT REIT, which owns land at 4630 Sheppard Ave. E.!!!</p>
Record rise in Ontario mortgage delinquencies stem from COVID-era interest rates
While many Canadians are having financial troubles, no where are they more acute than in Ontario, according to a new report from Equifax. The company, which monitors consumer credit, says Ontarios mortgage delinquency rate rose to 0.24 per cent in the first three months of 2025, a massive 71.5 per cent increase from that same time period in 2024. Kathy Catsiliras, vice president of analytical consulting at Equifax, said Wednesday Ontarians are paying the piper for the low rates that were seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. We had ultra-low interest rates which led to a very hot housing market and specifically, we saw a lot of folks going out again in many cases purchasing properties and taking on a mortgage, she explained.
How A Weakened Canadian Dollar Impacts Commercial Real Estate
One of the many subplots of the ongoing trade war with the United States is that it has raised the value of the Canadian dollar, somewhat covering up the fact that the CAD has been on years-long slide. In March 2024, the CAD to USD exchange rate was at about $0.74 and then stayed above $0.70 — with fluctuations — before dipping to a 22-year low of $0.68 on January 31, the day before 25% tariffs levied by US President Donald Trump on nearly all goods from Canada and Mexico were set to come into effect. "I think everybody knows that the CAD has been coming off quite a bit in the last year, but that's within the context of a longer run, said CoStar Group Chief Economist & Head of Market Analytics Carl Gomez in an interview with STOREYS this week. "The depreciation has been happening since the pandemic. Even going back before that, since the ['08-'09] financial crisis and the oil implosion in 2015, the CAD has really come off." In a vacuum, however, a weakend Canadian dollar may not be a bad thing, at least for commercial real estate. "We are one of those weird industries where up is down, black is white, and sometimes bad news is good news for us," says Colliers National Head of Research Adam Jacobs. "It's a negative in the sense that it could cause more inflation if you're sourcing materials outside Canada, but it could also be a positive because it does put Canada somewhat 'on sale,' you could say, for an investor who's coming from Japan, who's coming from Germany, who's coming from England."